Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: 9 Weeks of Ceasefire – WTI & Brent Defend Floors, NatGas Eyes $3.25?

Oil and Natural Gas Markets Remain Balanced as Ceasefire Holds

Oil benchmarks traded calmly on June 3, 2026, as the U.S.-Iran conditional ceasefire, in place for just over nine weeks, appeared to persist, with limited shipments of oil tankers resuming their passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The accord has essentially removed the elevated geopolitical risk that caused wild swings in oil prices earlier this year, and market attention has reverted to traditional oil supply and demand fundamentals.

The outlook for both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude reflects a more normal global supply-demand environment, as the U.S. is still producing oil at nearly record rates, OPEC+ is maintaining output discipline, non-OPEC supply continues to expand with Brazil, Guyana, and Canada among key contributors, while Iran and its neighbors have been moving to gradually increase shipments back to previous levels.

The market is also anticipating a moderate increase in global demand through 2026, with recovery in the strongest growth segment of Asia still continuing, while higher interest rates and restrained consumer spending across the Western world continue to temper overall demand expectations.

Natural gas, meanwhile, continued to trade in quiet fashion, supported by solid builds in inventories across the U.S. and Europe as the region is experiencing a softer spring compared to last year, with the cessation of hostilities in the Middle East removing a potential risk to the flow of Lng cargoes across the Indian Ocean, while the long-term outlook for demand from both Asia and Europe in 2026 appears solid in the face of a growing global population. Investors are awaiting new inventory data from the U.S., and guidance from OPEC+ on its production stance. With the ceasefire holding, the risk of a sudden surge in oil supply is not high, analysts caution that its continuation remains tenuous.

Natural Gas Futures Steady at $3.231 – Blue Channel Retest on 2h

Natural Gas futures is trading at $3.231 on the 2h timeframe on NYMEX. The red MA has been retested at $3.20, and price action is testing the blue channel base. The bullish pattern of higher lows from the $2.978 swing have been defended at the base of the channel on the 2h timeframe.

Short bodied candles have been seen, indicating that we have a clear pattern of short term buyers defending price at the base level. The relative strength index hovers around 52, indicating neutral momentum and neither buyers nor sellers are in an overbought/oversold situation.

A volume profile suggests that $3.10 is a significant pivot support. Fibonacci extensions project price targets into the $3.256-$3.321 zone. Structure stays decisively bullish above $3.10 while riding the clean up-channel from May lows. The pattern of higher lows have been very clean.

Trade Idea: Buy $3.231 targeting $3.256, stop $3.10.

WTI Crude Oil Rebounds at $95.53 – Blue Channel Floor Holds Strong on 2h

WTI is trading at $95.53 on the 2h timeframe. The blue rising channel floor at $94.38 was defended by green follow-through bars as price dipped towards the red 50 MA at $94.90. The wicks on those candle have a short bodies pointing to buyers are defending at a key area for support.

Since the $90.66 swing, buyers have been defending with small bodies, and price has been making higher lows. Additionally, we see price break out of a distribution zone with ease. The relative strength index is above 48, indicating that the bullish momentum is recovering, but there are no signs yet of an overbought.

The Fibonacci retracement off the May swing shows that the next barrier to break is in the $96.00-$97.00 range. A volume profile supports $94.38 as being a significant level. The white descending trendline which has been in place since April is capping the upside at $98.21. Overall structure stays neutral-to-bullish above channel support inside bigger downtrend.

Trade Idea: Buy $95.53 targeting $97.00, stop $94.38.

Brent Crude Oil Advances to $97.18 – Red MA Test Inside Channel on 2h

Brent is trading at $97.18 on the 2h timeframe. The red 50 MA is retested near $98.21 on the follow-through of a green bar. In addition to that, we see the blue channel base being tested on the 2h timeframe. Price action has been defending with a clear pattern of higher lows off of the $96.59 level as seen by the short bodied candlestick bodies absorbing all selling pressure.

The relative strength index is near 50, indicating there is no overbought/oversold signal and the momentum in between the bulls and bears. A volume profile indicates that $97.62 is a significant supply zone.

Fibonacci retracement levels show that the next target to hit is in the $98.00-$100.04 confluence. Structure remains neutral-to-bullish above $96.59 while defending the channel floor from April highs. Clean price action inside broader downtrend from $110 levels.

Trade Idea: Buy $97.18 targeting $98.00, stop $96.00.