E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – February 6, 2018 Forecast

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading slightly higher at the time of this report at 1016 GMT, but the price action has been quite volatile throughout the session. We’ve seen a two-sided traded so it’s a coin-toss right now as to how it’s going to open at 1430 GMT. Remember that there could be a disjoint between the cash and the futures markets because the futures market kept going down on Monday after the cash market closed.

We’re going to look at the weekly swing chart today because the daily chart is being destroyed by the return of volatility.

Weekly Swing Chart Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly chart, but momentum has shifted to the downside with the formation of last week’s closing price reversal top and the subsequent confirmation earlier this week.

The main trend will turn to down on a trade through 2415.50. The next bottom after that is 2320.00.

The minor bottoms at 2667.75 and 2556.50 were taken out earlier.

The short-term range is 2415.50 to 2878.50. Its 50% to 61.8% zone is 2647.00 to 2592.25.

The main range is 2320.00 to 2878.50. Its retracement zone is 2599.25 to 2533.25.

Combining the two zones makes 2599.25 to 2529.25 the key area to watch today. It could act like a pivot.

The index is currently testing these zones.

Weekly Swing Chart Forecast

Based on the early price action, the index could turn bullish today on a sustained move over 2647.00. Look for the weakness to resume on a sustained move under 2533.25.

Weekly Nearby Futures Contract

Looking at this chart, we see that if the downside momentum continues we could hit the 50% to 61.8% zone of the entire Trump Trade Rally. In other words, the index could take back 50% of the rally in two weeks what it took 64 weeks to build.

The Trump Trade Range is 2019.00 to 2878.50. Its retracement zone and primary downside target is 2448.75 to 2347.25.

Big buyers may step in on a test of this zone.