E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – January 23, 2017 Forecast

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly before the cash market opening. Investors are reacting negatively to Trump’s inauguration speech, but seem to be more cautious then bearish.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2277.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 2228.00 will turn the main trend to down.

On the upside, minor top targets include 2272.75 and 2273.00.

On the downside, the minor bottoms come in at 2253.00 and 2248.50.

The short-term range is 2277.00 to 2248.50. Its 50% level or pivot is 2262.75. This price is controlling the short-term direction of the market. The index is currently below this level, giving the market a downside bias.

The main range is 2228.00 to 2277.00. Its retracement zone at 2252.50 to 2246.75 is the primary downside target.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 2261.00 and the earlier price action, the direction of the index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at 2262.75.

A sustained move under 2262.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into a price cluster at 2257.00 to 2256.00. If 2256.00 fails as support then look for the selling to extend into 2253.00 to 2252.50. The down move could accelerate on a trade through 2252.50 with the next targets 2248.50 and 2246.75.

A sustained move over 2262.75 will indicate the return of buyers. The first target angle comes in at 2267.00. Overtaking this angle could drive the market even higher with the next target coming in at 2272.00. This is followed by a series of potential resistance levels at 2272.75, 2273.00 and 2277.00.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 2272.75 today. Trader reaction to this level will set the tone for the day.