E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – July 11, 2017 Forecast

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly before the cash market opening. Volume is light as investors prepare for Fed Chair Yellen’s remarks to Congress on monetary policy on Wednesday and Thursday. Investors are also getting ready for the start of earning season on Friday when several major banks are scheduled to release their second-quarter results.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the swing chart, but downside momentum has slowed since the spike bottom on June 29.

The trend will turn up on a trade through 2451.50. A move through 2402.25 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The short-term range is 2451.50 to 2402.25. Its retracement zone at 2427.00 to 2432.75 has been acting like a magnet for the last seven session. Clearly, trader reaction to this zone will determine the direction of the index over the near-term.

The main range is 2341.75 to 2451.50. Its retracement zone at 2396.50 to 2383.50 is the primary downside target.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 2423.00, the direction of the index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 2427.00.

A sustained move over 2427.00 will indicate the presence of buyers, but don’t expect an acceleration to the upside until the Fibonacci level at 2432.75 is taken out with conviction.

A sustained move under 2427.00 will signal the presence of sellers. The next major targets are 2402.25 and 2396.50, but don’t expect a test of these levels unless the market is hit with a wave of selling accompanied by better than average selling volume.