E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – July 4, 2017 Forecast

With the U.S. cash market closed because of the Independence Day holiday, we’ll take a look at the weekly chart to get a better look at the September E-mini S&P 500 Index market without all the noise of the daily chart.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through 2451.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

Last week’s price action made 2451.50 a new minor top. The minor range is 2451.50 to 2402.25. Its retracement zone is 2426.75 to 2432.75. This zone was tested on Monday.

The main range is 2314.75 to 2451.50. Its retracement zone at 2383.00 to 2367.00 is the primary downside target. An uptrending Gann angle also passes through this zone at 2370.25, making it a valid downside target also.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 2428.25, the direction of the index the rest of the week will be determined by trader reaction to the support cluster at 2426.75 to 2426.25.

A sustained move over 2426.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could drive the market into the Fib level at 2432.75. This level is the trigger point for a surge to the upside.

A sustained move under 2426.25 will signal the presence of sellers. The daily chart is open to the downside with the next target last week’s low at 2402.25.

Taking out 2402.25 could trigger a further break with the main 50% level at 2383.00 the next major target.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 2426.75 to 2426.25 all week. Trader reaction to this area will tell us if the buying is getting stronger or if sellers are taking control.