E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Near-Term Support Rises to 3674.50 on Monday

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures ended a tumultuous year with the benchmark contract finishing at a record high. The move was quite impressive as the index notched yearly gains despite an economy upended by the COVID-19 virus as investors looked to a post-pandemic world.

On Thursday, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled at 3748.75, up 24.00 or +0.64%. For the year, the cash S&P 500 Index gained 16.3%.

In a year that marked the end of the longest bull market on record as pandemic-induced government lockdowns battered the global economy, equities stormed back, with the S&P 500 climbing more than 66% from its March 23 low, resulting in the shortest bear market in history.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed on Thursday when buyers took out the closing price reversal top at 3747.75. The main trend will change to down on a move through 3596.00.

The minor range is 3596.00 to 3753.00. Its 50% level at 3674.50 is the first support.

The second minor range is 3497.25 to 3753.00. Its 50% level at 3625.00 is the last potential support level before the 3596.00 main bottom.

The short-term range is 3216.25 to 3747.75. If the main trend changes to down then its retracement zone at 3484.50 to 3421.25 will become its primary downside target.

Short-Term Outlook

Trader reaction to last week’s high at 3753.00 will likely set the tone on Monday. Additionally, investors who took a vacation the last two weeks of December are going to have to decide whether to chase the market higher or play for a short-term pullback into a value area like 3674.50.

There will be possible headwinds on Monday as all eyes will be on two U.S. Senate races in Georgia this week that will determine control of the chamber and influence Democratic President-elect Joe Biden’s ability to enact his agenda.