E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – November 16, 2015 Forecast

December E-mini S&P 500 index futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market opening. The index gapped lower on the opening in reaction to the attacks in Paris, but quickly recovered due to the lack of follow-through pressure. Today could be a volatile session due to heightened awareness of geopolitical events.

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, today is also the 9^th day down from the 2110.25 top on November 3 so the index is in the window of time for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

Based on Friday’s close at 2018.50, the first major downside target is today’s low at 1998.50. This is followed by a long-term uptrending angle at 1997.00. The main range is 1861.00 to 2110.25. Its retracement zone at 1985.50 to 1956.25 remains a valid downside target.

The nearest upside target is a short-term downtrending angle at 2038.25. If a short-term range develops between 2110.25 and 1998.50 then its retracement zone at 2054.50 to 2067.50 becomes the primary upside target.

Since the market posted a lower-low earlier in the session, it could form a reversal bottom so the key number to watch the rest of the session is yesterday’s close at 2018.50. A sustained move over this level will indicate the presence of buyers. A sustained move under this level will indicate the presence of sellers.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 2018.50 today. Trader reaction to this level will tell us whether the bulls or the bears are in control. Be aware of the possibility of a two-sided trade today because of the heightened awareness of geopolitical events.