E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Showing Early Strength Over 4393.50 Pivot

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher at the mid-session on Thursday after data showed fewer Americans filed for unemployment insurance last week.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 14,000 to 385,000 in the week ended July 31, while layoffs dropped to their lowest level in more than 21 years last month as companies held on their workers amid a labor shortage, the Labor Department’s report showed.

At 15:51 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4413.50, up 18.75 or +0.43%.

Ten of the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes were higher in early trading, with only healthcare stocks in the red as health insurer Cigna Corp dropped 12.6% on doubling its estimate of the hit to full-year earnings from the pandemic.

Of the 340 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, a record 87.6% have beat profit estimates, as per Refinitiv IBES data. Overall, analysts expect second-quarter profit at S&P 500 companies to jump 90.2% versus a year ago.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4422.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4224.00 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 4364.75 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 4364.75 to 4422.50. The index is currently trading on the strong side of its pivot at 4393.50.

The short-term range is 4224.00 to 4422.50. If the minor trend changes to down then look for the selling to extend into its retracement zone at 4323.25 to 4299.75.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4393.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4393.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into 4422.50. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4393.50 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough selling pressure than look for the selling to possibly extend into 4364.75.

Taking out the minor bottom at 4364.75 could trigger an acceleration into the short-term retracement zone at 4323.25 to 4299.75.