E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 2786.00, Weakens Under 2765.50

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures fell on Wednesday amid a plunge in March retail sales. Also weighing on the benchmark index was a slump in manufacturing in New York, and a slide in energy stocks. The selling pressure started early in the session as anemic bank earnings fueled concerns over the coronavirus’s impact on the U.S. economy.

On Wednesday, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled at 2775.00, down 68.00 or -2.45%.

In further evidence of economic damage from the coronavirus, U.S. retail sales plunged 8.7% in March, manufacturing output dropped by the most in over 74 years and a survey showed manufacturing activity in New York state plunged in April to its lowest in the series’ history.

Energy stocks were pressured after U.S. crude oil fell to its lowest level in more than 18 years on Wednesday. The slide in West Texas Intermediate crude futures followed reports of the largest inventory build on record as well as a bearish report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2846.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through the last main bottom at 2424.75.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 2620.75 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The main range is 3397.75 to 2174.00. Its retracement zone at 2786.00 to 2930.25 is resistance. This zone is also controlling the longer-term direction of the benchmark index.

The intermediate range is 3131.00 to 2174.00. Its retracement zone at 2652.50 to 2765.50 is potential support.

The short-term range is 2174.00 to 2846.00. Its retracement zone at 2510.00 to 2430.75 is another potential support area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Wednesday’s close at 2775.00, the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 2786.00 and the Fibonacci level at 2765.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2786.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the main top at 2846.00. Taking out this level could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the main Fibonacci level at 2930.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2765.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target the intermediate 50% level at 2652.50.