E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 3901.00, Weakens Under 3881.75

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are inching higher early Thursday after posting a strong gain the previous session on the back of supportive comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Rising rates weighed on the blue chip index early in the session on Wednesday, but stocks rose when yields came off their highs after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell continued to downplay the threat of inflation.

At 07:49 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3925.75, up 3.25 or +0.08%.

Later today at 13:30 GMT, investors will get the opportunity to react to the latest data on initial jobless claims. The report is expected to show a print of 845,000. Also at 13:30 GMT, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release its second estimate for fourth-quarter GDP. Traders are looking for an increase of 4.2%, up from 4.0%.

Before the opening, Best Buy reports earnings. After the close Salesforce.com will release its results.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 3959.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 3804.75 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is down. A trade through 3936.00 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The short-term range is 3959.25 to 3804.75. The index will begin today’s session on the strong side of its retracement zone at 3881.75 to 3901.00, making this area support.

The intermediate range is 3656.50 to 3959.25. Its 50% level at 3807.75 is support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 3901.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3901.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out 3936.00 will shift momentum to the upside. This could trigger a surge into the main top at 3959.25. Taking out this price could fuel an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3901.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a test of 3881.75. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

Side Notes

The key area to watch remains 3901.00 to 3881.75. Continuing to hold above this zone will create a strong upside bias. Falling below this zone will be an early indication that a potentially bearish secondary lower top is forming.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.