E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to 4337.75 Pivot Sets the Tone

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are down from record highs on Monday as disappointing economic data from China sparked fears of slowing global growth, pressuring shares of sectors that are closely linked to the health of the U.S. economy.

The data showed that retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment in China all missed the forecasts, pointing to the impact of the fast-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus and knocking down prices of oil and other commodities.

At 13:48 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4440.25, down 22.25 or -0.50%.

In the energy sector, shares of Conoco Phillips, Exxon Mobil, Chevron Corp and Schlumberger NV fell nearly 1%. In the banking sector, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo & Co and Citigroup fell between 0.6% and 0.8%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4463.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4224.00 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 4412.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The first minor range is 4412.25 to 4463.25. Its 50% level or pivot is 4437.75.

The second minor range is 4364.75 to 4463.25. Its 50% level or pivot comes in at 4414.00.

The short-term range is 4224.00 to 4463.25. If the minor trend changes to down then its retracement zone at 4343.50 to 4315.25 will become the primary downside target area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4437.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4437.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is 4449.00, followed by the main top at 4463.25. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4437.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a sharp break into the next pivot at 4414.00, followed by the minor bottom at 4412.25.

Taking out 4412.25 will shift the minor trend and momentum to the downside. The daily chart shows there is plenty of room to the downside with 4364.75 and 4343.50 the primary downside targets.