E-mini S&P 500 Turns Lower for Week Ahead of NFP Report

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower late Thursday as rapid moves in the energy and bond markets slowed and investors monitored the war in Ukraine.

In stock related news, defensive plays including health care and utility stocks outperformed. Duke Energy and Walmart each rose more than 2%.

At 20:51 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4356.00, down 25.75 or -0.59%. This is down from an intraday high of 4418.75. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) settled at $435.75, down $2.17 or -0.50%.

On the economic front, jobless claims for last week came in at 215,000. That was lower than the 225,000 expected by economists, according to Dow Jones. The reading comes ahead of February’s highly-anticipated jobs report, which will be released Friday.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4484.50 will change the main trend to up. A move through 4101.75 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 3718.50 to 4808.25. Its retracement zone at 4263.25 to 4134.75 is the support area controlling the near-term direction of the benchmark index.

The short-term range is 4808.25 to 4101.75. Its retracement zone at 4455.00 to 4538.50 is resistance and a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

The minor range is 4586.00 to 4101.75. The index is currently trading on the strong side of its pivot at 4343.75, making it support.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close and on Friday’s opening is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 4343.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4344.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a surge into 4418.75. Taking out this level could trigger a further rally into the short-term 50% level at 4455.00, followed by the main top at 4484.50.

Taking out 4484.50 will change the main trend to up with the short-term Fibonacci level at 4538.50 the next major target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4343.75 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the major 50% level at 4263.25.

The 50% level at 4263.25 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next targets a major Fibonacci level at 4134.75, followed by a main bottom at 4101.75.