E-mini S&P Strengthens Over 4293.25, Weakens Under 4263.25

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower in Monday’s pre-market session as investors grew concerned about the economic ramifications of the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Over the weekend, the U.S., European allies and Canada agreed to remove key Russian banks from the interbank messaging system, SWIFT. This move could freeze the Russian central bank’s access to its foreign currency reserves held in the West, thereby increasing economic risks.

At 06:36 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4290.75, down 89.25 or -2.04%. On Friday, the S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) settled at $437.68, up 9.38 or +2.19%.

In other news, Russian President Vladimir Putin put his country’s nuclear deterrence forces on high alert Sunday amid a growing global backlash against the invasion. In addition, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said representatives for Ukraine and Russia have agreed to meet on the Ukraine-Belarus border, “with no preconditions.” However, expectations are low that anything constructive will come from this meeting.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending higher following the formation of a closing price reversal bottom on February 24.

A trade through 4484.50 will change the main trend to up. A move through 4101.75 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 3718.50 to 4808.25. The market is currently trading on the strong side of its 50% level at 4263.25, making it new support. Additional support is its Fibonacci level at 4134.75.

The minor range is 4484.50 to 4101.75. The index is currently straddling its 50% level at 4293.25.

A second minor range is 4586.00 to 4101.75. Its 50% level at 4344.00 is additional resistance.

The short-term range is 4808.25 to 4101.75. Its retracement zone at 4455.00 to 4538.50 is the major resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index early Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at 4263.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4263.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overcoming the pivot at 4293.25 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If move this creates enough upside momentum, then look for a surge into a 50% level at 4344.00.

Overtaking 4344.00 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 4455.00 to 4538.50 the next major target zone.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4263.25 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with 4134.75 the next major target, followed closely by the minor bottom at 4101.75.

Side Notes

U.S. investors appear to be taking the war, the sanctions and Putin’s nuclear deterrent in stride. This is because the conflict is taking place in Eastern Europe. Prices could plunge, however, if Putin decides to bring the war to the United States in the form of cyberattacks or even an attack on a NATO ally.