ETH Bulls to Target $2,000 on the Return to a Net Staking Surplus

Key Insights:

• ETH enjoyed a breakout session on Friday, rallying 4.37% to end the day at $1,934.
• Staking statistics and ETF-related news supported a choppy but bullish session.
• The technical indicators remained bullish, signaling a return to sub-$2,000.

Ethereum (ETH) rallied by 4.37% on Friday. Following a 1.31% gain on Thursday, ETH ended the day at $1,934. Despite the breakout session, ETH continued to fall short of the $1,950 handle.

After a bullish morning session, ETH slid to an early afternoon low of $1,825. Finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,828, ETH rallied to a late afternoon high of $1,945. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,878 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,904 to end the day at $1,934.

ETF-Linked News Delivered a Choppy but Bullish Session

BTC ETF-related news weighed on investor sentiment. The SEC reportedly considered the latest BTC ETF applications lacking clarity and comprehensiveness.

One area of SEC focus was the lack of surveillance-sharing agreements or appropriate details about the surveillance-sharing agreements. 21Shares, ARK Invest, Blackrock, Fidelity, Invesco, Valkyrie, and WisdomTree all reportedly amended and refiled their applications on Friday.

The market focus on crypto exchange-traded funds has intensified in recent weeks. ETH remains a likely beneficiary of a comprehensive crypto exchange-traded fund market. On Monday, news hit the crypto wires of The Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank Corporation (HSBC) clients gaining access to BTC and ETH exchange-traded funds (ETF).

However, investors brushed aside the news of Ethereum transactions freezing for 12 seconds.

Staking Statistics Turned Bullish to Support an ETH Return to $1,900

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows increased from 37,152 on Thursday to 59,968 on Friday. However, ETH staking inflows remained below the 100,000 ETH threshold but aligned with recent Friday trends.

The overnight withdrawal profile was relatively bullish, with principal withdrawals briefly hitting elevated levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session are bullish. Projections show principal withdrawals will return to below-normal levels this morning.

On Friday, the net ETH staking balance stood at a 36,050 ETH surplus (+41.90%) over 24 hours, equivalent to a positive balance of $66.69 million. Deposits totaled 38,800 versus withdrawals of 2,750 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 26,180 ETH, equivalent to approximately $50.20 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 5.65%, down 0.53% over 24 hours. The downward trend in the staking APR remains a drag for staking inflows and is ETH price negative.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Saturday session, with no US economic indicators to influence. The lack of US economic indicators will leave staking statistics, crypto-ETF-related chatter, and SEC v Ripple-linked news to move the dial.

However, investors should also consider ETF updates and SEC v Binance and SEC v Coinbase (COIN)-related news.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was down 0.69% to $1,920. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,944 before falling to a low of $1,920.

ETH Technical Indicators

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was bullish signals. Ethereum sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,866. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA ($1,866) would support a breakout from R1 ($1,978) to target R2 ($2,023) and $2,050. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($1,866) would bring S1 ($1,857) and the 100-day ($1,843) and 200-day ($1,832) EMAs into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send bearish signals.

Resistance & Support Level