Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH Whale Data Signals Bottom Near $1.50K

The recent sideways movement between converging trendlines reflects temporary balance after heavy selling, but historically, this structure tends to break in the direction of the prior trend.

ETH trades below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages, all sloping downward. These levels now act as resistance. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index sits below 50, signaling weak momentum despite a modest bounce from oversold levels.

If ETH breaks below pennant support near $1,900, the measured-move target points toward the $1,550 zone. That level also aligns with a previous horizontal support area, strengthening its technical importance.

A breakout above the upper pennant boundary would invalidate this setup. Until then, downside risk remains elevated.

ETH Whale Data Signals ETH Bottom is Near

Ethereum’s on-chain data suggests the market may be approaching a bottoming phase, but potentially only after another dip.

As of Feb. 16, the ETH Whales Unrealized Profit Ratio has slid toward breakeven or loss territory. The metric tracks unrealized profits for wallets holding roughly 1,000 to 100,000+ ETH by comparing their holdings against the estimated cost basis.

When the ratio nears zero or turns negative, it indicates whales are no longer sitting on meaningful gains, which typically reduces the incentive to sell aggressively.

Historically, similar conditions have appeared near major inflection points. The same whale-profit compression showed up around the 2018–2019 cycle bottom and during the 2022 capitulation, both of which eventually preceded stronger, multi-month recoveries.

Fed Rate Cut Odds Improve ETH Price‘s Rebound Outlook

Macro conditions may ultimately determine whether ETH finds support near $1,550 or breaks lower.

On Feb. 16, Presidents’ Day in the US and Lunar New Year closures in China thinned liquidity, but the bigger story was macro repricing after softer US inflation.

Futures now fully price a Fed Rate Cut by July, with strong odds of a move as early as June and July. An easier policy typically supports risk assets, including crypto, by improving liquidity conditions.

If cuts arrive, whale accumulation could help fuel a rebound. If not, ETH’s bearish technical setup may stay in control. For now, the $1,550 area remains the key level to watch.