Ethereum Price Prediction: Drop to $1.8K Likely If Key ETH Support Falters

Ethereum (ETH) is still the best-performing asset among the top 5 in the past 30 days, with a 7% gain. However, the top altcoin is tagging a key support that bulls need to defend at all costs to prevent a drop to the $1,800 area.

Trading volumes have retreated in the past 24 hours compared to a few days ago, landing at $18 billion or 7% of the asset’s circulating market cap.

Earlier this week, we saw $38 billion worth of ETH exchanging hands in a single day as the token broke through the $2,150 resistance.

Back then, we categorized this breakout as a promising “buy” signal and emphasized that a retest of the $2,150 could be a golden opportunity for late buyers.

This is where we are now. The question would be, do ETH bulls have the necessary ammo to keep this rally going?

ETH Volumes Dry Up – Are Buyers Out of Fuel?

We have been tracking the interaction of two key metrics related to ETH’s volumes – the 7-day moving average and the 30-day moving average.

In the past, whenever we got a bullish crossover between these two lines, the price has tended to rally strongly.

Even though the distance between these two lines shortened earlier this month, we are now seeing a worrying divergence that could favor a bearish outlook for ETH.

The last time the gap between the 7-day MA and the 30-day MA was this high, ETH cratered from $3,200 to $1,940 in just a few weeks. A bearish breakout below the $2,150 level could set fire to the long positions that were opened in the past couple of weeks as ETH recovered.

Hence, the market could be preparing for another big dump that could crash ETH once again, unless bulls manage to defend the $1,800 level with tooth and nail.

ETH’s Key Support at $2,150 is Still Holding Up

The 4-hour chart shows that ETH has been hovering above this $2,150 level in the past couple of days. This demand zone coincides with the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) in this lower time frame – an indicator that has significant technical relevance.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped slightly below 40, which tends to confirm that bearish momentum is accelerating. Hence, a break below $2,150 would confirm that sellers are in control of the game.

Right now, we expect to see a signal in either this time frame or the hourly chart that confirms institutional participation in whatever the next move is. Our signals system tracks “decisional” candles that feature above-average volumes and a specific candle pattern.

We consider these candles additional confirmation of how relevant a price level is for the market. If we get a breakout or a rebound off a certain level with one of these candles, it means that these are high conviction moves.

We are still not getting any signals in the hourly chart, so we’ll have to wait for the weekend to see what the market does next. Stay tuned for a follow-up article.