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EUR/USD Daily Price Forecast – Rallied On Upbeat Chinese PMI And Later Capped Gains On Governor Klaas’s Dovish Comments

By:
Nikhil Khandelwal
Published: Apr 1, 2019, 10:13 UTC

Consensus estimate an in-line Core Consumer Price Index for the month of March. UK MPs all set for the next voting session today.

Money banknotes of different countries on the table

The EUR/USD had a positive opening this morning, surging from 1.1224 to 1.1241 levels. This upside was majorly due to the upbeat Chinese Manufacturing PMI released earlier the day. Around 1.8 percent above-expected actual Chinese PMI elevated the risk-averse currency space which includes the EUR/USD. The overall gains, however, remained capped after the Dutch Central Bank Governor Klaas provided his dovish stance on the long-term rates.

German March Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reported lower than the consensus estimate. The February Unemployment rate for France was 0.2 percent up before previous 10.7 percent.

At the time of writing this article ( 07:53 GMT), the pair was trading at 1.1247 level.

The pair awaits major significant European and US events imminent during the day. Keep a close watch over these bullish and bearish events.

Top EUR/USD Highly Influencing Events For The Day:

By 09:00 GMT, (High Volatile)

Eurostat will come up with some significant Eurozone Statistical scores – Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and CPI, YoY for March. The market expects the March Core CPI YoY to report as 0.9 percent prior to the previous 1.0 percent. Consensus estimate an in-line expectation the CPI YoY.

By 12:30 GMT, (High Volatile)

US Census Bureau will report the “US February Retails Sales Control Group”. This industrial sales data is usable in the computation of PCE for most goods. The consensus takes a bearish stance on these critical numbers expecting the Feb index as 0.4 percent prior to the previous 1.1 percent.

By 14:00 GMT, (High Volatile)

Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release the March ISM Manufacturing PMI. The Street Analysts are slightly bullish on the index with consensus 0.3 points above the previous 54.2 points.

Expected By 18:00 GMT, (High Volatile)

The MPs will cast their votes again for a non-binding or indicative vote on alternatives to UK PM May’s Withdrawal deal. The Motion Options include Unilateral right of exit from the backstop, No deal in the absence of a withdrawal agreement, Customs union, Common Market 2.0, Confirmatory public vote, Public vote to prevent no deal, Parliamentary supremacy, and EFTA & EEA. The outcome of this event would have a significant impact on the then movement of the EUR/USD pair.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD 5 Min 1 April 2019
EURUSD 5 Min 1 April 2019

The Euro pair is trading above the SMA (Simple Moving Average) which depicts probable signals of an upside movement. Relative Strength Index (RSI) did reveal some overbuying alerts at the end of the morning uptrend but wholly remained within the range of 30-70. The pair tried to stay within the Keltner Channel (KC) with some distortions here and there. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed strong bullish signals which may help the EUR/USD to break off the resistance level of 1.1247.

About the Author

Nik has extensive experience as an Analyst, Trader and Financial Consultant for Global Capital Markets. His vision is to generate Highest, Consistent and Sustained Risk-Adjusted Returns for clients over long term basis and providing them world-class investment advisory services.

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