EUR/USD Daily Price Forecast – The Euro Bulls Await the Bullish-Expected PMI Numbers

The pair had risen yesterday following strong Chinese macro data. Today, it needs something more of power to impress the euro bulls.
Nikhil Khandelwal
EUR/USD Price forecast

Yesterday’s slip in the EUR/USD from the top 1.1325 levels stalled and remained consolidated near 1.1300 levels. During the early Asian session, there appeared firm signs of downward movement in the pair. The euro pair must go down beyond strong 1.1291 support level to confirm a bear call. Nevertheless, the EUR/USD tries hard to sustain near the 1.300 comfort levels.

Near the start of this week, the ECB Officials had addressed on their concerns for strong economic growth. They had mentioned the forecasts for the 2H19 seems unrealistic. This dovish tone continues to stem in for a EUR/USD plunge story. Things may worsen if the key euro events miss market expectation.

A few moments ago, at 06:00 GMT, the German March MoM PPI came around 0.3 percent below the market expectation.

Key EUR/USD Influential Events:

Markit Economics will publish the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Germany at 7:30 GMT and for the EMU at 8:00 GMT. This index measures the manufacturing, services, and the composite of both sectors.

  • Firstly for Germany, the Consensus estimates the Manufacturing PMI (High Volatility) to rise 0.5 percent. The Services PMI is expected to come around 0.54 percent lower to the prior 55.4 percent. However, they expect an increase in the Composite PMI with 0.3 percent.
  • Secondly, for EMU, the analysts remain bullish over the Composite index (High Volatility) to reach at 51.8 percent. Similarly, the Manufacturing PMI to go up reaching 47.9 percent. Whereas the Services PMI is expected to decrease with 0.1 percent than the previous 53.3 percent.

12:30 GMT (High Volatile)

The US Census Bureau will release the Retail Sales Control Group for March. The report computes the consumer spending which is crucial for assessing GDP. The consensus expects the numbers to reach at 0.4 percent than previous negative 0.2 percent.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD 30 Min 18 April 2019

The Ichimoku clouds remained around only three pips above the EUR/USD. Nonetheless, that makes for a slight bearish call towards 1.1280 levels. The baseline and the conversion line remained coincided with the euro pair, developing a neutral forecast. From the SMA perspective, the pair traded just below the significant 100-days and 200-days SMA showing a small bearish trend. On the upside, however, if it uptrends on fundamental backing then it will face the strong 1.1320 resistance level.

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