EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Attempts to Rally Again

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 20.10.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The euro has rallied a little bit during the trading session on Thursday, as it looks like we are going to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. All things being equal, the market is still in the midst of building some type of bearish flag, so with that being the case, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we fall from here. The 1.05 level underneath is a major large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where a lot of people will be paying close attention.

All things being equal, the market is going to continue to see a lot of downward pressure due to the lack of global risk appetite, and of course the idea that the interest-rate differential continues to favor the US dollar has a lot to say with what’s going on here. We are in the midst of building a bearish flag, which of course is a technical indicator that a lot of people will be paying attention to. The 50-Day EMA is near the 1.07 level, which is a short-term “ceiling in the market.”

Ultimately, I like the idea of fading signs of exhaustion, and I will of course be willing to take advantage of it. All things being equal, breaking down below the 1.05 level is the most likely of outcomes, and if we do get that move, then I believe that the market drops down to the 1.0250 level, followed by the parity level. If we did break above the 50-Day EMA, then I will have to start taking a look at whether or not the fundamentals are in the midst of changing, or if they are still the same.

All things being equal, I think the US dollar will continue to strengthen against most currencies, so therefore it’s worth noting that the euro will almost certainly be a victim of this. With that, I remain bearish, but I also recognize that this pair is notoriously choppy, and of course recently it hasn’t shown itself to be anything different than what it normally is. In fact, it’s the high amount of volume that keeps the spread low, and therefore the market is likely to be very choppy.

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