EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Breaks Down During the Session on Thursday

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 01.09.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The euro has pulled back from the 50-Day EMA, showing signs of hesitation. That being said, the 200-Day EMA underneath offers support, and at this point I think we have to look at this through the prism of the PCE suggesting that inflation might be a bit sticky and the United States. However, you also have to keep in mind that the market will also have to pay close attention to the fact that we are stuck between the 50-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA as well. The uptrend line sitting just below there offers quite a bit of support as well. It’s not until we break down below the 1.0750 level that I would become bearish in this market and start selling.

On the other hand, if we turn around and break out above the 1.10 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move much bigger. The 1.12 level above would be your target, and then of course you have to pay close attention to the fact that the market is in a major channel, so the technical analysis still suggests that we could go higher. However, we need to get through the jobs number first before we put serious money back into this market. All things being equal, this is a market that I think shows a potential area of support just below, but it’s not until we get through that noisy behavior that you can seriously take any move with more than a grain of salt.

In general, this is a situation where I think we will continue to see a lot of hesitation, but eventually when we get to the middle of next week when most traders are back from holiday, we will more likely than not see a mass of volume coming back into the picture. After all, traders are more or less paying attention to the beaches at the moment rather than the charts. However, it’s probably only a matter of time before they come back, but keep in mind that Monday is also Labor Day in the United States and that may cause a bit of stagnant trading on Monday. The jobs number of course on Friday could throw this thing around but at the end of the day it’s still at the end market.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.