EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Continues to Do Nothing

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 16-01-2024

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Euro has done a lot of chopping back and forth during the trading session on Monday. And as we continue to do a lot of nothing, this is essentially what is known as Brownian motion, which is when there’s a lot of movement but not a lot of traction to go in one direction or the other, it’s a lot of nothingness. I think that probably continues to be the case in the short term. We have to figure out whether or not we are going to continue to see a lot of confusion or eventually we will get some type of movement in the bond markets that facilitates the euro rising or falling.

Keep in mind that the US dollar has taken a little bit of a hit due to the fact that people are starting to question whether or not the Federal Reserve will cut rates, maybe three, four, or five times this year. Whether or not they will remains to be seen but it certainly looks like they probably will, but at the same time you have to ask whether or not the ECB is going to have to cut as Germany is already in a recession. I suspect at this point in time the market is just killing time trying to figure out what to do next.

The 1.10 level above is a significant resistance barrier, and if we can break above there, then I believe that the euro could go looking to the 1.1150 level, and then eventually the 1.1250 level. On the downside, if the euro were to break down below the 50-day EMA, that could open and move down to the 200-day EMA, possibly even down to 1.0750. In general, this is a situation where I don’t think you can count on much, but if you are a short-term back and forth range-bound type of trader, this might be the pair for you, at least in the short term. With that being said, it comes down your trading style whether or not the euro is going to be the market for you.

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