EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Continues to Drift

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The euro did very little in the early hours on Thursday and as you can see, we continue to see a lot of noise right around the 1.09 level. Keep in mind that Friday is the jobs report number and that of course will have a significant influence here on this pair. And the jobs report of course will influence almost everything.

This is a pair that I think continues to be a scenario where the Euro is range bound due to the fact that the ECB is going to have to cut rates later this year because of the German recession. And of course, the Federal Reserve has even stated they are more likely than not to do so. So, both of these banks will end up being loose with their monetary policy at the end of the year and I think we’re just going to settle into a range because of that. If that’s the case, then we have to define the range.

As things stand right now, I believe that the 1.10 level above is your ceiling and the 1.07 level above is your floor. Recognize that we can break out occasionally but that’s the meat and potatoes of the entire market and its consolidation in 2024 as things stand right now. Obviously, the US dollar can get a bit of a boost due to geopolitical conditions or concerns as it is considered to be a safety currency.

And perhaps Germany can claw out of a recession and save the euro. But as things stand right now, this is what it looks like we’re going to have this year, and as we’re basically in the middle. I use this chart as a gauge on what’s happening with the US dollar, and not so much as a trading vehicle. For example, if the euro is falling against the US dollar, that typically means that other major currencies are falling as well against the greenback. And of course, you also have the exact opposite.

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