EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Continues to Drop

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 18.05.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Euro has fallen a bit against the US dollar during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of negative pressure. If we continue this type of momentum, the market will likely go looking toward the 200-Day EMA, and therefore the 1.07 level. Ultimately, I think this is a situation where the market will continue to look at the US dollar for safety, and of course the potential troubles with the European economy.

Ironically, the debt ceiling situation probably puts a little bit of a floor underneath the US dollar at the moment, due to the fact that people will be looking for some type of safety. Alternately, do not be overly surprised if we see the US dollar lose some of its strength after a debt ceiling decision has been reached, as people will look at that as getting out of one potential disaster. That being said, the Euro looks like it has peaked for the time being, so a little bit of a pullback does make a certain amount of sense. Whether or not that leads to something bigger remains to be seen, but it’s clear that something has snapped in the euro as of late, and the momentum is clearly to the downside.

On the upside, the 1.09 level will be short-term resistance as we have the 50-Day EMA in that range, and then of course we have the 1.10 level after that. It is not until the 1.11 level is broken to the upside on a daily close that we can say that the overall upward trend has been continued, and that the buyers are taking over yet again. Nonetheless, it has to be said that there has been a lot of euro strength as of late, but it is worth noting that from the big move, we are starting to see a lot of trouble right around the well-known 50% Fibonacci level. Because of this, the market will more likely than not continue to be very noisy, so keep an eye on the short-term charts, because that’s probably about as good as this is going to get.

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