EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Continues to Look at Support

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 24.02.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Euro has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to hang around the 1.06 level. The 1.06 level is an area where a lot of people have seen action previously, so it does make a certain amount of sense that it would offer support. If we can break down below there, we are not out of the woods yet for the US dollar, because the 200-Day EMA is hanging around the 1.05 level. The 1.05 level obviously has a certain amount of psychological importance, and it was an area where we had seen a previous pullback. That pullback bounced rather hard, so one would have to assume that there’s a little bit of market memory in that region.

Breaking down the 1.05 level opens up the possibility of a move down to parity, which would take quite a bit of time to get to in my estimation. However, it would be more or less a “one-way trade” from what I can see as well. There is a lot of noise all the way to that region, but it is choppy and not of an impulsive variety until you get down to the 1.0250 level.

If we were to break higher, keep in mind that the 50-Day EMA is sitting just above the Wednesday candlestick, hovering around the 1.07 level. Anything above their opens up the possibility of a move to the 1.08 level, which is where we have seen quite a bit of selling pressure previously, so I think more likely than not you will have a hard time getting above there. Anything above there then starts to threaten the overall downward momentum that we kicked off at the 1.10 level, which consequently was basically the 50% Fibonacci level from the huge move lower. At this point, it seems like we are trying to determine whether or not the Euro is going to continue to be weak, or if the entire trend has reversed. Both the ECB and the Federal Reserve are both sounding very hawkish these days, so this may come down to global growth more than anything else.

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