EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Continues to Look Soft

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 08.09.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The euro has looked a bit soft during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to look at a lot of concern about inflation out there. Because of this, it looks as if the market is going to continue to see a lot of overhead pressure, with the 200-Day EMA above offering a bit of a barrier. If we can break above the 200-Day EMA, that would obviously be a very bullish sign, but at this point I think it is probably only a matter of time before we see the selling pressure come back.

On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 1.07 level, it’s likely that the market goes looking to the 1.05 level. All things being equal, if we can break above the 200-Day EMA, then it’s possible that the market could eventually go look into the 50-Day EMA, the 1.10 level, and perhaps beyond. With that, I think this is a scenario where you continue to fade rallies until all of that happens. Quite frankly, Germany is already in a recession, and it appears that inflation in the United States is going to be “sticky” going forward.

Regardless, I think you will see a lot of noisy behavior, and therefore I think you have to look at this through the prism of short-term “fading the rally” type of set ups until we get some type of clarity. Keep in mind this week is typically the first week of full liquidity, as traders come back from the summer break, and therefore we may continue to see a lot of noise, and therefore it’s probably more prudent to pay attention to higher timeframe charts, but it certainly looks as if the US dollar is about to make a huge move against multiple currencies, and it does not look like the Euro will be any different. Granted, it may take a little bit of effort to make that happen, but it certainly looks as if we are setting up for the greenback to come roaring back in strength over the next couple of weeks, possibly even longer than that.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.