The euro initially did rally during the trading session on Monday but tested the 200 day EMA and then turned right back around. That being said, the 1.0750 level is an area that a lot of people will be paying attention to as it’s been a bit of a fulcrum for the price, with a lot of action in that general region.
Even if we break down below there, I think you really need to pay more attention to the 1.07 level as a major floor in the market. On the upside, it’s obvious that the 200-day EMA is something that people are paying attention to, and the fact that it is just above the 1.08 level will cause a certain amount of natural resistance as well. I suspect at this point, we are still consolidating near the bottom of the overall consolidation and therefore, I haven’t read too much into the action so far, as it is simply a market that is just grinding away back and forth.
This does make a certain amount of sense considering that the European Central Bank is likely to cut rates this year right along with the Federal Reserve. For the longest time, it seems like everybody has been begging the Federal Reserve to cut rates, but they just pushed that timeline back.
In other words, the euro may be on its back foot, and it does make a certain amount of sense considering that Germany is heading into a recession, or for that matter, is already there. The rest of Europe will follow and of course the ECB will have to do something about it. This isn’t to say that the Federal Reserve won’t cut rates this year, it’s just to say that the one-way trade is now over. What does that leave us with? Well, it leaves us with a sideways choppy action this year. So what you’ve seen over the last two weeks is more or less a microcosm of what I think you’ll see for most of 2024.
Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.