The euro initially pulled back a bit during the Monday trading session, only to turn around and rally again as we continue to fight with the 1.10 level. This is obviously a psychologically important level that a lot of people will pay close attention to, as people like big figures. That being said, we have sliced through here before so it’s not exactly ironclad. If we can break above the recent high, then we could continue to grind upward and go looking toward the 1.1250 level. The 1.15 level would then be next, but all of this will take quite a bit of effort.
If we do pull back from here, and quite frankly would not be overly surprising, I do think that there is a lot of support near the 1.09 level and of course at the 1.08 level where we have the 50-Day EMA. The 50-Day EMA is rising quite steadily, so a lot of traders will look at this as a sign that we are in an uptrend.
In general, this is a market that I think will continue to be very noisy and choppy, especially as we are in the midst of earnings season, meaning that Wall Street will be throwing money around in various directions. Furthermore, we also have a lot of confusion as to what the Federal Reserve is going to do, because quite frankly the market has been fighting the Federal Reserve the entire way through the rate hiking cycle. That being said, the question now will probably be whether or not the European Central Bank will continue to be hawkish.
At this point, they claim that they are going to continue to fight inflation, but that’s the same thing that the Federal Reserve says as well. In other words, it looks like people are paying more attention to and believing the ECB more than the Federal Reserve, and that’s probably the biggest driver of this pair at the moment. Regardless, keeping your position size reasonable is going to be crucial at this point, as we are getting a bit stretched, and of course there is so much noise out there that the market is trying to sort through at the moment.
Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.