EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Crashes Into Resistance

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 13.03.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Euro has rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. We are currently trading between the 50-Day EMA above, and the 200-Day EMA below. This tends to cause quite a bit of noisy behavior, and therefore I think you’ve got a situation where the market will continue to be difficult to get your hands on, but if we can eventually break out of this range that we have set up, then it’s likely that the market will finally make a big move.

The 1.07 level above is a resistant barrier that if we can take out, then we could open up the possibility of going to the 1.08 level. After that, they also could push the Euro up to the highs again, but I think it’s going to take a significant amount of momentum to make that happen. After all, the recent high that we made was the 50% Fibonacci router level from the massive selloff last year, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see traders defend that level.

On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 200-Day EMA, then it’s possible that we could go down to the 1.03 level, and then down to the parity level. The parity level of course will attract a lot of attention as it makes for a good headline, and it’s an area where we have seen a lot of action in the past. Whether or not we get down there is a completely different question, but it certainly would make a juicy target for those trying to sell the Euro.

Keep in mind that the European Central Bank continues to reiterate its desire to bring inflation back down to 2%, so that does cause a little bit of noise in the market, but at the end of the day the Federal Reserve will get what it wants, and therefore I suspect that eventually the US dollar will strengthen as they continue to shoot the interest rates higher in that country. That being said, this rally is not something I want to step in front of, at least not without signs of exhaustion. As soon as we get signs of exhaustion, I’m more than willing to fade the move.

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