EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Slams Into Resistance Ahead of FOMC

Christopher Lewis
Updated: Mar 22, 2023, 14:53 UTC

The Euro has rallied again during the trading session on Wednesday as we wait for the FOMC meeting results.

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EUR/USD Forecast Video for 23.03.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Euro has rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday to test the 1.08 level. The 1.08 level is an area that previously has been resistance, so it should be well known as an area that we could struggle at. Furthermore, the Euro has rallied rather drastically over the last couple of days, so you would have to keep in mind that we may see signs of exhaustion, and a FOMC meeting might be the perfect reason.

The Euro is now heading into an area that has been sold off rather aggressively, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see hesitation if we did rally. However, the FOMC meeting could change everything, so you need to be very cautious with putting big positions into the market. The market breaking above the 1.08 level would be very bullish, but again, there’s a lot of noise above that could cause significant selling pressure all the way up to the 1.0950 level.

The 50-Day EMA sits near the 1.0650 level and is rising. The 50-Day EMA is an indicator that a lot of people will pay attention to, so could be dynamic support. Any short-term pullback at this point will more likely than not offer value the people are willing to pay attention to, unless of course the Federal Reserve remains extraordinarily hawkish.

If that’s the case, then we could see the market could break down and go looking towards the 1.06 level. The 1.05 level underneath there would be massive support as well, and breaking down below that area would also be a break of the 200-Day EMA. That of course is a very negative sign and could send the market much lower. In that environment, we could be looking at a move down to the 1.03 level, perhaps down to the parity level.

Ultimately, this is a market that will be making a lot of decisions over the next couple of days that could be more permanent, but at this point it still looks like there is a lot of trouble above that could keep a bit of a lid on any Euro rally.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.

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