EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Stalls Heading Into the Weekend

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 17.07.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The euro initially tried to continue going higher during the day on Friday but has struggled a bit. That’s not a huge surprise considering we had gone straight up in the air for the last several days, and of course gravity comes back into the picture. Ultimately, we have to think about the idea that perhaps the market needs to back and fill, which is very common after an initial surge like we have seen.

The 50-Day EMA underneath is sitting right around 1.09 level and is rising. The 1.09 level was an area of significant support previously, so I think that is an area that a lot of people will be paid attention to. Because of this, I think you’ve got a scenario where the market will eventually have to make up its mind whether or not it can hang on to these gains, but quite frankly I don’t see anything on this chart that suggests we are going to suddenly turn around, but if you were to break down below the 50-Day EMA it would obviously be a very negative turn of events.

At this point, you should see plenty of value hunters on that dip, and it could send this market looking to the 1.15 level over the longer term. As traders continue to look at this market through the prism of the Federal Reserve having the slowdown, this has sent the euro soaring. This was especially prevalent this past week as we have seen both the CPI and the PPI numbers come in lighter than anticipated, suggesting that inflation is finally cooling down in America.

Whether or not that’s actually the truth is a completely different question, but at this point in time it’s likely that the market will be a bit heavy, and therefore I would anticipate the early part of this coming week to be negative, only to find buyers to come in and pick up this market. If we did go straight up in the air from here, I would be very cautious due to the fact that the euro is so overstretched at this moment.

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