EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Tests 50-Day EMA

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 03.11.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The euro rallied significantly during the trading session on Thursday, as the market looks as if it is going to go racing toward the 50-Day EMA. The 50-Day EMA is of course an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to. At this point, the market is likely to see some resistance, and of course we have the jobs numbers coming out on Friday, which of course has its own influence.

I do believe that eventually we will see signs of exhaustion that we can start fading, but you need to be patient and wait for them. Ultimately, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility, but at this point in time, we are getting close to that pocket between the 50-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA indicators, which is quite often going to offer resistance.

Underneath, the 1.06 level is an area of importance, and then after that you have the bottom of the bullish flag that we have been bouncing around in. If we break down below the bottom of the flag, then the 1.05 level underneath is significant support as well. Ultimately, I’m looking for an opportunity to pick up “cheap US dollars” but I will be patient about the entire situation. I have no interest in buying the euro until we break above the 200-Day EMA, which is something that we are still significantly far from at the moment.

Now that we have the jobs number on Friday, that’s probably going to come into the picture as well, and therefore you need to be very cautious about putting too much money into the market, as we will almost certainly get a lot of volatility early on Friday. Having said that, I am looking for an opportunity to start shorting, so I am on the sidelines at the moment, just simply waiting to put money to work. What I would like to see is some type of shooting star or similar candlestick to get involved, perhaps on the 4 hour chart or even the daily chart.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.