EUR/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Key Price Level in December is 1.1823

The EUR/USD is trading slightly lower in December. The Forex pair is also trading inside last month’s range which indicates investor indecision and impending volatility. The market reached its high at 1.1940 on December 1, slightly below the November high at 1.1961, in anticipation of the Fed rate hike.

The EUR/USD reached its low for the month on December 12 at 1.1717, the day before the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate for the third time this year.

Monthly Swing Chart Analysis

The main trend is up according to the monthly swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of a closing price reversal top in September and the subsequent confirmation in October.

A trade through 1.2092 will negate the potentially bearish chart pattern and signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 1.1553 will indicate the selling is getting stronger.

The main range was formed by the May 2014 main top at 1.3993 and the January 2017 main bottom at 1.0339. Its retracement zone at 1.2166 to 1.2597 is the primary upside target. The lower or 50% level of its range is currently acting like resistance.

The intermediate range is 1.0339 to 1.2092. Its retracement zone at 1.1216 to 1.1009 is the primary downside target. If 1.1553 is taken out with conviction, we could see a move into this area.

The short-term range is 1.2092 to 1.1553. Its 50% level or pivot is 1.1823. The market has been straddling this level for two months. In November, it closed above it, but there was no follow-through to the upside. It is currently trading on the bullish side of this level. This may give the EUR/USD an upside bias going into January.

Monthly Swing Chart Forecast

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 1.1823 this last week of the year. Trader reaction to this level could set the early tone for the EUR/USD in 2018.