The 10-year U.S. Bond Auction yielded 4.44%, reflecting investor sentiment on Federal Reserve actions.
Core CPI and CPI data will be crucial for the Federal Reserve’s decisions and dollar strength.
Market Overview
The GBP/USD saw significant movement following the release of the UK’s Claimant Count Change figures, which showed a sharp increase to 50.4K from the previous 10.2K. This suggests rising unemployment claims, which could weigh on the pound. Additionally, the Average Earnings Index remained steady at 5.9%, indicating no immediate wage inflation pressure.
The USD had its own moment with the 10-year Bond Auction yielding 4.44%, slightly below the previous 4.48%. This could reflect investor sentiment and expectations around future Federal Reserve actions, potentially impacting the dollar’s strength.
Events Ahead
Looking ahead, key events on June 12 could shape the currency markets. The GBP/USD will likely react to the UK’s GDP figures, expected to remain flat at 0.0%. Any deviation from this could trigger volatility in the pound.
In the US, the release of Core CPI and CPI data will be critical. Both are forecasted to stay steady, with Core CPI at 0.3% and CPI at 0.1% monthly, and 3.4% annually. These figures are crucial, as they influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions.
The Federal Funds Rate is anticipated to hold at 5.50%, but the accompanying FOMC Economic Projections and Statement, followed by the Press Conference, will be closely watched for any hints of future policy changes.
Any indication of a shift could significantly impact the Dollar Index, currently trading at $105.226, up 0.04%. A hawkish tone could strengthen the dollar, while a dovish outlook might see it weaken.
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Dollar Index
The Dollar Index is trading at $105.226, up 0.04%. The pivot point at $105.103 is crucial for today’s trading session. Immediate resistance levels are $105.454, $105.655, and $105.892. On the downside, support is found at $104.890, $104.699, and $104.465.
Technical indicators suggest a bullish outlook. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $104.799, and the 200-day EMA stands at $104.832. The current price above these averages indicates upward momentum.
The outlook remains bullish above $105.103, but a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD is trading at $1.07436, down 0.03%. The pivot point at $1.07326 is key for today’s session. Immediate resistance levels are at $1.07745, $1.08122, and $1.08544. On the downside, support is found at $1.07001, $1.06746, and $1.06484.Technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.08099, and the 200-day EMA is at $1.08114, with the current price below these averages, indicating bearish pressure.
The outlook remains bullish above $1.07326, but a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD is trading at $1.27469, down 0.01%. The pivot point at $1.27237 is crucial for today’s trading. Immediate resistance levels are at $1.27628, $1.27856, and $1.28182. On the downside, support is found at $1.26957, $1.26733, and $1.26463.Technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.27449, while the 200-day EMA stands at $1.26804. The current price is above the 200 EMA, indicating a potential bullish trend.
The outlook remains bullish above $1.27237, but a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
