EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: EUR Nears $1.0715 Before Inflation Figures

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Published: Jul 2, 2024, 08:23 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

German Preliminary CPI at 0.1% pressured the Euro, missing the forecast of 0.2%.
ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.5, indicating a contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector.
Dollar Index trades at $105.99, down 0.27%, with mixed technical signals for support and resistance.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: EUR Nears $1.0715 Before Inflation Figures

Market Overview

On Monday, July 1, the German Preliminary CPI m/m came in at 0.1%, missing the forecast of 0.2%, which pressured the Euro (EUR). In the U.S., the Final Manufacturing PMI was 51.6, slightly below the expected 51.7. The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.5, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, which was worse than the forecast of 49.2.

Additionally, the ISM Manufacturing Prices fell to 52.1 from 57.0, showing easing inflationary pressures. These figures influenced the Dollar Index, which is trading at $105.99, down 0.27%. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s speech also added volatility to the Euro.

Events Ahead

Looking ahead to Tuesday, July 2, markets will focus on the Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y for the Eurozone, expected to be 2.8%, and the CPI Flash Estimate y/y, forecasted at 2.5%.

These inflation figures will be crucial for the EUR/USD, which is currently trading at $1.07167, up 0.44%. ECB President Lagarde will speak again, potentially impacting the Euro further.

In the U.S., all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech and the JOLTS Job Openings report, expected to show 7.96 million openings.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The Dollar Index is trading at $105.99, down 0.27%. On the 2-hour chart, the pivot point is $105.798. Immediate resistance levels are $106.134, $106.261, and $106.401. Immediate support is at $105.650, followed by $105.426 and $105.254.

Technical indicators show mixed signals. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $105.811, and the 200-day EMA is at $105.491. This suggests potential support around these levels. The outlook for the Dollar Index is bullish above $105.798.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.07167, up 0.44%. On the 2-hour chart, the pivot point is $1.07279. Key resistance levels are $1.07621, $1.07815, and $1.07975. Immediate support is at $1.07059, followed by $1.06864 and $1.06660.

Technical indicators show mixed signals. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.07224, while the 200-day EMA is at $1.07394. These levels suggest potential bullish momentum above the pivot point.

The outlook for EUR/USD is bearish below $1.07279. A break above this level could boost bullish momentum, while failure to hold may reinforce bearish pressure.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD is trading at $1.26220, up 0.13%. On the 2-hour chart, the pivot point is at $1.2635. Immediate resistance levels are $1.2662, $1.2680, and $1.2704. Immediate support is at $1.2612, followed by $1.2595 and $1.2580.

Technical indicators provide a mixed outlook. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.2650, and the 200-day EMA is at $1.2680, suggesting potential resistance levels. The outlook for GBP/USD is bearish below $1.2635.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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