EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: Market Braces for US GDP Insights

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Published: Feb 28, 2024, 08:24 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Durable Goods Orders drop hints at US economic cooling, spotlight on upcoming GDP data.
Prelim GDP and Price Index forecasts critical for evaluating US economic health, Fed's next steps.
G20 Meetings, MPC Member Mann's speech to provide additional cues on global economic sentiment.

USD Dynamics: Awaiting GDP Data Amid Durable Goods Orders Decline

The US Dollar sees slightly positive movements despite the release of data indicating a sharper than expected decline in Durable Goods Orders for January, potentially signaling a cooling in economic activity.

This sets a cautious tone as markets anticipate the upcoming Prelim GDP q/q figures, expected to hold steady at 3.3%, alongside the Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, forecasted at 1.5%.

These figures are crucial for gauging the US economy’s resilience and could influence Federal Reserve policy directions moving forward.

Events Ahead:

Anticipation builds for the Prelim GDP and GDP Price Index data, providing insights into economic growth and inflation trends.
The Goods Trade Balance and Prelim Wholesale Inventories data are also on the horizon, offering further clarity on the US economic landscape.
Additionally, the financial world turns its eyes towards the G20 Meetings and MPC Member Mann’s speech, potentially impacting market sentiment and currency valuations.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index’s has witnessed a modest uptick, climbing by 0.26% to stand at 103.667, signaling bullish momentum as it surpasses the pivot point of 103.536. The immediate resistance levels are positioned at 104.008, 104.304, and 104.595, potentially capping further gains.

On the downside, support is found at 103.269, 102.941, and 102.711, which are crucial for maintaining the dollar’s upward trajectory.

The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, at 103.60 and 103.40 respectively, provide a tight range, indicating a possible breakout from the downward trendline.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD pair experienced a minor decline, shedding 0.24% to stand at 1.08173 as of February 28, hinting at a cautious market sentiment. With the currency hovering around pivotal levels, the technical outlook suggests a bearish bias below the 1.0840 pivot point.

Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0866, 1.0887, and 1.0910, marking potential hurdles for any upward trajectory. Conversely, support levels at 1.0813, 1.0790, and 1.0762 provide key thresholds that could contain further declines.

The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, closely aligned at 1.0817 and 1.0824 respectively, offer additional insights into the pair’s direction, emphasizing the bearish sentiment below the critical 1.0840 mark.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD pair has seen a decrease, moving down by 0.31% to trade at 1.2645, indicating a bearish momentum as it falls below the day’s pivot point of 1.26612. Resistance levels are identified at 1.26992, 1.27279, and 1.27586, which could limit upward movements.

Conversely, support at 1.26255, 1.25898, and 1.25536 will be crucial for the pair to prevent further declines. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, at 1.26501 and 1.26437 respectively, are closely aligned, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics.

The breakout from the upward trendline underscores a bearish outlook, indicating that GBP/USD may face downward pressure below the 1.26612 mark.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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