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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: Market Braces for US GDP Insights

By:
Arslan Ali
Published: Feb 28, 2024, 08:24 UTC

Key Points:

  • Durable Goods Orders drop hints at US economic cooling, spotlight on upcoming GDP data.
  • Prelim GDP and Price Index forecasts critical for evaluating US economic health, Fed's next steps.
  • G20 Meetings, MPC Member Mann's speech to provide additional cues on global economic sentiment.
US Dollar Index and FOMC

In this article:

USD Dynamics: Awaiting GDP Data Amid Durable Goods Orders Decline

The US Dollar sees slightly positive movements despite the release of data indicating a sharper than expected decline in Durable Goods Orders for January, potentially signaling a cooling in economic activity.

This sets a cautious tone as markets anticipate the upcoming Prelim GDP q/q figures, expected to hold steady at 3.3%, alongside the Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, forecasted at 1.5%.

These figures are crucial for gauging the US economy’s resilience and could influence Federal Reserve policy directions moving forward.

Events Ahead:

  • Anticipation builds for the Prelim GDP and GDP Price Index data, providing insights into economic growth and inflation trends.
  • The Goods Trade Balance and Prelim Wholesale Inventories data are also on the horizon, offering further clarity on the US economic landscape.
  • Additionally, the financial world turns its eyes towards the G20 Meetings and MPC Member Mann’s speech, potentially impacting market sentiment and currency valuations.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index
Dollar Index

The Dollar Index’s has witnessed a modest uptick, climbing by 0.26% to stand at 103.667, signaling bullish momentum as it surpasses the pivot point of 103.536. The immediate resistance levels are positioned at 104.008, 104.304, and 104.595, potentially capping further gains.

On the downside, support is found at 103.269, 102.941, and 102.711, which are crucial for maintaining the dollar’s upward trajectory.

The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, at 103.60 and 103.40 respectively, provide a tight range, indicating a possible breakout from the downward trendline.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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