EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for April 12, 2018

The EUR/USD is trading lower on Thursday as investors await the release of the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and continue to react to yesterday’s hawkish Fed minutes. Traders are also keeping an eye on rising oil prices and the geopolitical news associated with the price action.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum shifted to the upside on April 6 with the formation of a closing price reversal bottom.

A trade through 1.2476 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.2214 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. Today’s weakness made 1.2395 a new minor top. A trade through this top will signal a resumption of the minor trend.

The EUR/USD is currently testing a key retracement zone at 1.2354 to 1.2401. This zone is essentially controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is 1.2214 to 1.2395. Its retracement zone at 1.2305 to 1.2283 is the primary downside target. A test of this zone could attract aggressive counter-trend buyers. They are going to try to produce a secondary higher bottom.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the day is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 1.2354.

A sustained move under 1.2354 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into 1.2305 to 1.2283.

Overcoming and sustaining a rally over 1.2354 will signal the presence of buyers. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge 1.2395 then 1.2401.

The Fibonacci level at 1.2401 is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.