EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for April 30, 2018

The Euro is moving lower against the U.S. Dollar shortly before the U.S. opening. It’s also hovering near a three-month low hit last week.

Traders are preparing for German inflation data and consumer spending numbers due out of the U.S. later to see whether the dollar can continue to rally. Last week, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 3 percent last week, encouraging investors to buy the dollar and cut their Euro exposure.

At 1055 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.2093, down 0.0036 or -0.29%.

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that net long Euro positions held by speculators fell last week from a multi-year high, suggesting investors are still bullish on the single currency.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, Friday’s closing price reversal bottom and subsequent confirmation earlier today may be signaling an impending shift in momentum to the upside.

A trade through 1.2054 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend. However, taking out the intraday high at 1.2138 will signal the return of buyers.

If the selling pressure continues then the first target is the 2017 close at 1.2001, followed by the January 9 bottom at 1.1915.

The main range is 1.1915 to 1.2555. Its retracement zone at 1.2160 to 1.2235 is resistance along with a long-term 50% level at 1.2166.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 1.2113.

A sustained move under 1.2113 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum, we could see a retest of 1.2054. This is followed by the next uptrending Gann angle at 1.2014. This is a possible trigger point for an acceleration into 1.1915.

A sustained move over 1.2113 will signal the presence of buyers. The nearest target is a pair of retracement levels at 1.2160 to 1.2166. Since the trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of this area. However, 1.2166 is also the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.