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James Hyerczyk

The Euro declined against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday after a report showed Euro Zone producer prices fell by more than expected in February, dragged down mainly by a sharp fall in energy prices as a result of the Russia-Saudi Arabia oil price war.

The European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said prices at factory gates in the 19 countries sharing the Euro fell 0.6% month-on-month in February for a 1.3% year-on-year decline. Economists were looking for a 0.2% monthly and a 0.7% year-on-year fall.

At 12:34 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.0907, down 0.0059 or -0.54%.

BREAKING NEWS:  The U.S. Labor Department reported that more than 6.6 million new jobless claims were filed last week. Economists were looking for a reading of about 3.1 million, a week after nearly 3.3 million filings.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1147 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.0636 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 1.1496 to 1.0636. Its retracement zone at 1.1066 to 1.1167 is resistance. This area stopped the rally at 1.1147 on March 27.

The short-term range is 1.0636 to 1.1147. Its retracement zone at 1.0892 to 1.0831 is the next downside target.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.0907, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 1.0892.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.0892 will indicate the presence of sellers. The next downside target is the short-term Fibonacci level at 1.0831. This is followed by an uptrending Gann angle at 1.0796.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.0892 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into a pair of Gann angles at 1.0956 and 1.0987. The latter is the trigger point for a potential acceleration to the upside with the next target a resistance cluster at 1.1066 to 1.1067.

Side Notes

Trader reaction to the retracement zone at 1.0892 to 1.0831 could set the tone later in the day. Aggressive counter-trend buyers may try to form a secondary higher bottom on a test of this area.

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