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EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for April 20, 2021

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Apr 20, 2021, 11:54 UTC

The direction of the EUR/USD on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 1.2037.

EUR/USD

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The Euro is trading at its highest level since March 3 on Tuesday as investors grew more optimistic about the pace of the vaccine rollout in Europe and as U.S. Treasury yields remained below their March spikes. The move is the opposite of what happened in the first quarter of the year, when the dollar strengthened as U.S. Treasury yields rose and the pace of U.S. vaccinations jumped.

At 11:39 GMT, the EUR/USD settled at 1.2058, up 0.0022 or +0.18%.

Commerzbank strategist You-Na-Park-Hegar wrote in a note to clients that the recent fall is due to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s reassuring the market that it will not end its monetary stimulus anytime soon, while an improving vaccine situation in Europe is supporting the Euro. But she said that the situation could rapidly change.

Daily EUR/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier in the session when buyers took out the previous session high. A trade through 1.1943 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is 1.2243 to 1.1704. The EUR/USD is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at 1.2037 to 1.1974. This area is new support.

The main range is 1.1603 to 1.2349. The EUR/USD is also trading on the bullish side of its retracement zone at 1.1976 to 1.1888. This area is controlling the near-term direction of the common currency.

The best support is the price cluster at 1.1976 to 1.1974.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 1.2037.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.2037 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this continues to generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the minor top at 1.2113. Overtaking this level with conviction could trigger a further move toward the February 25 main top at 1.2243.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.2037 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the support cluster at 1.1976 to 1.1974. This is the last potential support before the last main bottom at 1.1943.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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