James Hyerczyk
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The Euro is nudging higher on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep policy unchanged while market players look for clues on when its massive monetary stimulus might start to be wound down.

“The Governing Council decided to reconfirm its very accommodative monetary policy stance,” the ECB said in a statement on Thursday.

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At 12:04 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.2046, up 0.0012 or +0.10%.

Traders should look for volatility as ECB President is currently answering questions about the central bank’s decision.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is showing signs of a shift. A trade through 1.2080 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 1.1943.

The minor trend is also up. A move through 1.1999 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The short-term range is 1.2243 to 1.1704. The EUR/USD is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at 1.2038 to 1.1974.

The main range is 1.1603 to 1.2349. Its retracement zone at 1.1976 to 1.1888 is support. This area is controlling the near-term direction of the EUR/USD.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.2038.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.2038 will indicate the presence of buyers. The next upside target is 1.2080. Taking out this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a further move into 1.2113. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the near-term target the main top at 1.2243.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.2038 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is 1.1999. Taking out this level will shift momentum to the downside with the 50% cluster at 1.1976 to 1.1974 the next likely target. This is the last potential support area before the main bottom at 1.1943.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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