EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for April 4, 2019

The Euro is edging lower shortly before the release of the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy minutes at 11:30 GMT. The report could be a market moving event because of the extremely dovish tone by the central bank after its March 6-7 meeting. At the meeting, the ECB warned of a weakening economy while introducing fresh stimulus measures. The Euro could plunge if the report paints a dovish picture of the Euro Zone economy.

At 11:28 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1226, down 0.0007 or -0.07%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The main trend will change to down if sellers can take out 1.1177.

The minor trend is up. It changed to up on Wednesday when buyers took out 1.1250.

The main range is 1.1448 to 1.1183. If this move creates enough upside momentum then we could see an eventual rally into its retracement zone at 1.1315 to 1.1347.

The short-term range is 1.1183 to 1.1255. Its 50% level or pivot is 1.1219. This level is support and appears to be controlling the direction of the EUR/USD on Thursday.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1228 and the short-term pivot at 1.1219.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1228 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a rally to 1.1255. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with 1.1315 the next major upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1219 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a possible break into the major, long-term Fib level at 1.1185 and the minor bottom at 1.1183. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this area. If it fails, then look for the selling to extend into the bottom at 1.1177. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the June 20 2017 main bottom at 1.1118.