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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading lower against the U.S. Dollar at the mid-session on Friday after a government report showed two months of record-setting payroll growth slowed in July, but was still better than Wall Street estimates.

The total nonfarm payroll increased 1.763 million for the month. Traders were looking for growth of 1.48 million.

The unemployment rate fell to 10.25 from its previous 11.1%. This was also better than the 10.6% consensus forecast.

An alternate measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed holding part time jobs for economic reasons fell from 18% to 16.5%.

At 12:56 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1836, down 0.0041 or -0.35%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1916 reaffirms the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 1.1185.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 1.1916 will confirm this. A trade through 1.1696 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 1.1696 to 1.1916. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1806 is potential support or a trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

The short-term range is 1.1371 to 1.1916. Its retracement zone at 1.1644 to 1.1579 is the next potential downside target zone.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1836, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 1.1806.

Bullish Scenario

Holding 1.1806 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into 1.1916. Taking out this minor top could trigger a rally into the May 14, 2018 main top at 1.1998.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1806 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a steep plunge into this week’s low at 1.1696. If this minor bottom fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into 1.1644 to 1.1579.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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