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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar on Friday on the hope that the United States and China would soon begin to de-escalate their trade war after sources said Washington and Beijing had set out its terms for a trade deal. Gains were capped earlier in the session as traders awaited a firmer confirmation from the Chinese side.

At 13:45 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1171, up 0.0038 or +0.34%.

The price action suggests investors are looking for clarity over the terms of the trade deal. Conditions could get quite volatile later in the session when Chinese officials hold a press conference regarding the trade talks on Friday, at 14:30 GMT.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1176 and 1.1179 reaffirmed the uptrend.

The main trend will change to down on a trade through 1.0981. This is highly unlikely. However, the EUR/USD is inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. A close under 1.1133 will form this chart pattern.

On the upside the major, long-term Fibonacci resistance level is 1.1185.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1171, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 1.1185 and the steep uptrending Gann angle at 1.1181.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1185 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a potential acceleration to the upside into 1.1250 over the near-term.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1181 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1144. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next angle coming in at 1.1081.

Side Notes

Essentially, look for volatility today at 14:30 GMT. A sustained move over 1.1185 will be bullish. A sustained move under 1.1181 will be bearish.

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