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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading better on Monday as traders began squaring positions ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate and monetary policy decisions. The Fed begins its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday and is expected to hike its benchmark interest rate for a fourth time in 2018. Traders aren’t worried about the rate hike, but would like to know something about the pace of future rate hikes and how central bank policymakers feel about the economy, given the on-going trade dispute with China and the global financial market volatility.

At 1316 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1341, up 0.0036 or +0.32%.

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Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down, but buyers found support on Friday at 1.1270. Buyers came in when the market tested an uptrending Gann angle. This angle is at 1.1279 today. The market is also trading on the strong side of a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1284.

Currently, the EUR/USD is testing another uptrending Gann angle at 1.1341. Overcoming this angle could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the next downtrending Gann angle at 1.1379. This angle is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next major target angle coming in at 1.1427. This angle stopped the rally at 1.1444 on December 10.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the current price at 1.1341, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1341.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1341 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could drive the EUR/USD into the downtrending angle at 1.1379. Since the main trend is down, look for sellers to come in on the first test of this angle. Overtaking it however, could trigger a surge into the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1427.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1341 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for a retest of Gann angles at 1.1284 and 1.1279.

Look for an acceleration to the downside if 1.1270 fails as support with the main bottom at 1.1216 the next major downside target.

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