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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading flat-to-higher against the U.S. Dollar on Monday after an unexpected rebound in Chinese manufacturing activity lifted U.S. Treasury yields, making the dollar a more attractive asset. Traders also said position-squaring ahead of a testimony by the European Central Bank’s new president, Christine Lagarde, to the European parliament later in the day, also kept a lid on prices.

At 13:01 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1023, down 0.0006 or +0.05%.

Look for movement later today at 15:00 GMT with the release of the ISM US Manufacturing PMI report. It is expected to show factory activity came in at 49.2, up from 48.3. Construction spending is expected to have risen 0.3%.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Friday’s closing price reversal bottom stopped the selling, at least temporarily. A trade through 1.1028 will confirm the chart pattern, which could trigger a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

A trade through 1.0981 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through 1.1097.

The main range is 1.0879 to 1.1179. Its retracement zone at 1.1029 to 1.0994 is currently being tested. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Euro.

The short-term range is 1.1097 to 1.0981. Its retracement zone at 1.1039 to 1.1053 is potential resistance.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1023, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1027 and the main 50% level at 1.1029.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1029 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a labored rally into a series of potential resistance levels at 1.1039, 1.1053 and a pair of downtrending Gann angles at 1.1062 and 1.1066.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1027 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move is able to generate enough downside momentum then look for a potential break into the main Fibonacci level at 1.0994, the long uptrending Gann angle at 1.0989 and the main bottom at 1.0981. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at 1.0934.

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