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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading higher on Thursday building on gains from Wednesday that were fueled by events out of Italy and the Fed’s decision to trim the number of rate hikes next year from three to two. Yesterday, Italy struck a deal with the European Commission over its contested 2019 budget.

This helped lift some of the uncertainty that had been capping gains recently. The dollar fell against the Euro in reaction to the news that Fed is now signaling fewer rate hikes in 2019. However, U.S. Treasury investors are still sticking with the notion that the central bank will have even fewer rate hikes next year.

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At 1400 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1460, up 0.0070 or +0.61%.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend changed to up when buyers took out the closing price reversal and main top at 1.1444. The trend change was reaffirmed later in the session when buyers took out another main top at 1.1474. The next upside target is November 7 main top at 1.1501.

The main bottom is 1.1270. A trade through this level will change the main trend to down.

The main range is 1.1501 to 1.1216. Its retracement zone at 1.1392 to 1.1359 is new support.

The EUR/USD is also straddling the upper end of a long-term retracement zone at 1.1447.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major 50% level at 1.1447.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1447 will indicate the presence of buyers. If they can generate enough upside momentum then look for a retest of today’s intraday high at 1.1487. This is followed by the main top at 1.1501.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1447 will signal the presence of sellers. Crossing back under the former top at 1.1444 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This would set up the EUR/USD for an even steeper break with 1.1392 the next major downside target.

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