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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is edging lower against the U.S. Dollar shortly before the U.S. opening and the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report at 13:30 GMT. Today’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report could set the tone for the rest of the session.

The Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to come in at 181,000. Some guesses have put it at 187,000. Before you get too excited, keep in mind that this figure is expected to be high because General Motors autoworkers went back to work after a strike. Earlier in the week, a private-sector report from ADP came in lower-than-expected.

The Unemployment Rate is expected to come in at 3.6%, unchanged from the previous month. Average Hourly Earnings are expected to have risen 0.3%.

At 11:45 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1094, down 0.0011 or -0.10%.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1116 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 1.0981.

The short-term range is 1.1176 to 1.0981. Its retracement zone at 1.1079 to 1.1102 is currently being tested. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the EUR/USD.

The major support range is 1.1029 to 1.0994.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1094, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1111. This angle stopped the buying earlier in the session.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1111 will indicate the presence of sellers. A sustained move under the short-term Fibonacci level at 1.1102 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger a move into a steep uptrending Gann angle at 1.1081.

Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of 1.1081. If it fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the short-term 50% level at 1.1079. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next likely target an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1031.

Bullish Scenario

Taking out and sustaining a rally over 1.1111 will signal the presence of buyers. This is followed by this week’s high at 1.1116. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next target angle dropping in at 1.1144.

Side Notes

Essentially, we’re dealing with a 50% to 61.8% retracement zone. Look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over 1.1102 and for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under 1.1079.

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