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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar on Monday after failing to garner enough sellers to sustain the sell-off from Friday. The price action suggests the move may have been overdone to the downside. We could also be looking at early position-squaring ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

At 11:52 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1072, up 0.0012 or +0.11%.

Earlier today, German Trade Balance came in at 20.6 Billion, better than the 19.0 Billion forecast. Sentix Investor Confidence rose 0.7, higher than the -5.4 estimate. There are no major reports from the U.S. today.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum shifted to the downside with the formation of the closing price reversal top on December 4 at 1.1116.

A trade through 1.1116 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 1.0981 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is 1.1176 to 1.0981. Its retracement zone at 1.1079 to 1.1102 is resistance.

The main range is 1.0879 to 1.1179. Its retracement zone at 1.1029 to 1.0994 is support.


Daily Technical Forecast

If today’s early upside momentum continues then look for the move to extend into the short-term 50% level at 1.1079.

Overcoming 1.1079 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a further rally into a price cluster at 1.1101, 1.1102 and 1.1109. The minor top at 1.1116 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the next downtrending Gann angle at 1.1142.

The inability to overcome 1.1079 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1041. This is followed by the main 50% level at 1.1029.

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