EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for February 15, 2019

The Euro is trading lower on Friday after yesterday’s promising closing price reversal bottom failed to attract enough buyers to sustain the move. U.S. Dollar traders seem to be shrugging off yesterday’s weaker-than-expected retail sales data with some saying the report was skewed because of the government shutdown. Others feel the numbers may have been understated given the stronger-than-expected January Non-Farm Payrolls report. Additionally, other than the major buyer defending the 1.1250 level, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of buying interest at current price levels.

At 13:00 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1262, down 0.0034 or -0.30%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Yesterday’s closing price reversal bottom was an attempt to shift momentum to the upside, but there wasn’t a confirming follow-through rally today.

A trade through 1.1249 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

If 1.1249 continues to hold then a trade through 1.1310 will confirm the closing price reversal bottom. A move through 1.1342 will change the main trend to up.

The short-term range is 1.1342 to 1.1249. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1296 is acting like resistance.

The main range is 1.1514 to 1.1249. If the trend changes to up then its retracement zone at 1.1382 to 1.1413 will become the primary upside target.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action the direction of the EUR/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the resistance cluster at 1.1294 to 1.1296.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1296 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into the main top at 1.1342. Taking out this level will change the main trend to up with the next major upside target the 50% level at 1.1382.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1294 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into the closing price reversal bottom at 1.1249. Taking out this level will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the downtrend. This is likely to extend the selling into the November 12 bottom at 1.1216. If this price fails then look for a potential acceleration into 1.1185.