EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for February 16, 2021

The Euro is trading higher on Tuesday, but coming off its intraday high. The single currency surged earlier in the session after a report showed Euro Zone gross domestic product fell less than initially estimated in the last quarter of 2020. Data also showed employment edged higher against the previous three months despite pandemic lockdowns, new estimates showed on Tuesday.

At 13:29 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.2135, up 0.0008 or +0.07%.

The European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said GDP in the 19 countries sharing the Euro contracted 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the October-December period, for a 5.0% year-on-year fall. Eurostat earlier estimated the contraction was 0.7% on the quarter and 5.1% in annual terms.

Eurostat also said that employment grew 0.3% on the quarter in the last three months of 2020 after a 1.0% quarterly rise in the previous three months, but was still 2.0% lower than in the same period a year earlier.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on February 5.

A trade through 1.2190 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.1952 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. However, the Euro is up seven session from its last main bottom, which puts it inside the window of time for a closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is up. It changed to up earlier in the session when buyers took out 1.2149. A trade through 1.2082 will change the main trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The short-term range is 1.2349 to 1.1952. Its retracement zone at 1.2151 to 1.2197 is resistance. Today’s rally to 1.2170 stopped inside this zone.

The minor range is 1.1952 to 1.2170. Its retracement zone at 1.2061 to 1.2035 is the next potential downside target. This zone falls inside the main retracement zone at 1.2074 to 1.2010.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD into the close on Tuesday will be determined by trader reaction to 1.2127.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.2127 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into a series of potential resistance levels at 1.2151, 1.2170, 1.2190 and 1.2197. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.2127 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into 1.2082 and 1.2074. Look for an acceleration to the downside into 1.2010 if 1.2074 fails as support.